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Timur Suleimenov: "The fall of the ruble is not associated with the creation of the EAEU"

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The expert said that the disparity of the exchange rate is not a direct consequence of the creation of the Eurasian Economic Union

Member of the Board (Minister) for Economy and Financial Policies of the Eurasian Economic Commission Timur Suleimenov clarified the issue. In the panel session, which was held within the frames of VIII Astana Economic Forum, the expert said that the disparity in exchange rates is not a direct consequence of the creation of the Eurasian Economic Union.

"It is clear that we have our own currencies, and it will continue this way ... And in some strategic future our currencies will be national", - with these words, the member of the EEC answered all questions about the possibility of establishing a uniform supranational currency.

The financial specialist explained that all the other problems associated with the fall of the ruble, arise not from the treaty on establishment of EAEU, but from the documents adopted much earlier.

"We have the largest boarder with Russia and most active trade wise ... there was an agreement on free trade zone - a multilateral, CIS, which was adopted without touching the "Eurasian" topic. Of course, we had the border and customs administration, but nevertheless, we did not have the right to apply customs entry fees before 2010 and in 2015. We had to let Russian goods to enter duty-free to our country", - said T. Suleimenov.

The economist said that in 1998 there was a similar situation when the ruble fell against the dollar to 3, and even up to 2.9.

"But then nobody linked it to the customs union or the EAEU, as they did not exist in nature", - said the representative of the Eurasian Economic Commission.

At the same time, in his opinion, "the question of monetary coordination of the Member States of EAEU exists regardless of whether there is a border or not", but the prevailing disparity in rates is not a consequence of "the Eurasian Economic Union".

"It is not a trouble or a disease of our economic union", - said the expert. - "We should not fight with the Union, we need to ensure better coordination of our exchange rate policies".

Timur Suleimenov proposed to imagine that in neighboring Uzbekistan occurred sharp depreciation of the national currency.

"Since we have have signed with Uzbekistan an agreement on free trade zone, we will let Uzbek products and at the markets of Shymkent and Taraz they will become terribly competitive. Can we build a barrier? Well, since we have the customs administration at the Kazakh-Uzbek border, probably, we will have more instruments. But, nevertheless, working in the legal field, we can prevent Uzbek goods from coming to our market. Therefore, colleagues I ask you to take into account this aspect", - said the member of the Board of the Eurasian economic policy.

(By the way, the forecasts of economists regarding the Uzbek som, last week was almost a reality. RBC Agency reported that the Central Bank of Uzbekistan stopped the operations with foreign exchange in the country. Until the beginning of July were suspended foreign exchange operations for individuals and legal entities (companies) . In May the rate of Uzbek som in the black market fell to 5 000 sum per dollar, while in March the price of one US dollar was 3 700 som. Meanwhile, in Uzbekistan since February 1, 2013 was banned free sale of foreign currency to individuals. The foreign currency can be obtained only through banks in the form of remittances, as well as transfer to a plastic card of citizens).

The Deputy Chairman of NCE RK Rakhim Oshakbayev supported this point of view. In his opinion, the disparity of the exchange rate "is not a question of the Eurasian Union, it is not a question of the Free Trade – it is a question to our Governments”.

"I firmly believe that in these matters a priority and a dogma is not an integration, but the national economic interests. Interests, which are primarily denominated in employment. And regardless of the conditions - whether we are in a free trade zone, or moved to a deeper level of integration – it is the responsibility of the regulator, the Government provides employment. In a market economy, we can ensure employment only through business development ... Of course, there is no need to be a good economist to understand that it is necessary to protect the market",- said Rakhim Oshakbayev.

According to Deputy Chairman of NCE, "Atameken" suggested to Government measures of protection of its markets.

"... In the framework of the WTO, such measures are called  “safeguards” - reviews ... We have appealed to the 29th article of the EAEU Treaty: as we saw a threat to economic security, was asked to impose temporary trade restrictions ... The government has responded, but, unfortunately, failed to achieve visible results. Now we hope that oil prices will grow back, but inflation in Russia will grow, the exchange rate will stabilize ... But for now, the effect of the devaluation of the ruble continues to affect our economy, and we see it in the region ...", - summed up R. Oshakbaev.


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