The National Bank chose the "golden middle"
Leading economists have commented on the situation with the exchange rate of tenge and the decision of the National Bank to extend the currency corridor
The National Bank of Kazakhstan has expanded the currency corridor from 170-188 to 170-198 tenge per US dollar. The regulator announced the continuation of the "policy of more flexible and smooth exchange rate", which was conducted in the first half of 2015.
"This means that the scenario of a sharp devaluation is not considered, in principle, that is correct. Especially that the gradual weakening of tenge eliminates the concerns of population", - wrote on his Facebook page, the head of the Center for Macroeconomic Research Olzhas Khudaibergenov.
The expert noted that the stated scenario is a gradual weakening of tenge by 0.5-1 tenge a month against the dollar, which allows you to stretch the working time corridor until the middle or end of next year, provided that the external environment won’t change.
"Given the fact that currently the rate is 187 tenge per dollar, even in case of the maximum weakening of tenge (up to 198 tenge) at a rate of 1 tenge per month, during the course of the year it can weaken by 5.9%. This allows you to save tenge deposits (the rate of about 10.5%) are more favorable in comparison with the dollar (rate of about 3%). It should be noted that the set parameters are very close to the script "tenge guarantees" that leaves hope for its full adoption in the coming months", - he said.
Khudaibergenov added that if the National Bank will be able to implement the statement, it will not only restore its credibility, the regulator will also be able to continue this policy in the coming years, voicing a long horizon for monetary policy.
"Naturally, all these will cusea not only profitability of tenge deposits, but also a high rate of tenge predictability, which will facilitate the planning of long-term investment projects (it will be easier for banks to assess the foreign exchange risk when issuing a loan). In general, the above scenario is the "golden middle" for the economy in the current circumstances", - he concluded.
Economic Observer Denis Krivosheev also promptly reacted to the news about the decision of the National Bank. His predictions were not so positive.
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